Causation, Correlation, and Useless Predictions are trending

Initial Inspiration

FS @farnamstreet

Choose what's easy today, and you'll be walking the hard path in the future. Choose what's hard today, and you'll be walking the easy path in the future.

The Rundown

We have been down on International Stocks and Bonds for a while now. We like US Stocks, Commodities, Managed Futures, and Cash right now.

Let’s check in our U.S. Equity strategies…

Reminder: We don’t predict where markets are going, we look at what trend is most favorable today. This can result in periods of underperformance, understanding that the goal is long-term performance that is aligned with client goals. Also, trend sensitivities are unique for each attribute and can change quickly.

We have liked RSP over IVV since March 11th. RSP owns the stocks in the S&P500 at equal percentages, while IVV owns the stocks based on their market weighting. Better returns and less volatility is ideal.

We have liked Small Cap Stocks (IJR) over the S&P500 (IVV) since July 19th. VTI is the total market index which owns both. Again, we have been fortunate.

Lastly, we shifted from Minimum Volatility Stocks (USMV) to Momentum Stocks (MTUM) in late September. Again, this is working out. Hard to say how these will look after the Fed Meeting on 11/2 and election.

If you want to know how unique 2022 is for Asset Allocation…

Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

With total return data going back to 1928... # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down? 5 --> 1931, 1941, 1969, 2018, 2022 # Years in which both the S&P 500 and 10-Year Treasury Bond were down more than 10%? 1 --> 2022

Michael Batnick @michaelbatnick

The S&P 500 has seen thirteen 52-week lows in 2022. That's more than the entire last decade. theirrelevantinvestor.com/2022/10/14/bad…

Is the Bear Market over? Depends who you ask.

ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA

🇺🇸 Bear Markets According to BofA, the bear market is not over as only 20% of bear market signposts have been triggered 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=market h/t @BofAML #markets #bearmarket #sp500 #equities $spx #spx $spy #stocks #assetallocation #investing

Willie Delwiche, CMT, CFA @WillieDelwiche

If the October rally that fueled Friday's breadth thrust has legs, we should see evidence of that in our Bull Market Re-Birth Checklist. That means consistently seeing new highs > new lows and moving from a risk off to risk on environment. allstarcharts.com/plus-weekly-ma…

The WTF of the Decade

Hamilton MS Daycare workers charged after scaring pre-schoolers with Halloween Masks

You have to see this video

What Made me Laugh

Dan Toomey @dhtoomey

Trick or treat: company edition